(It may be somewhat hard to get into UCR with a 3.2 HS GPA.)
Seems like we agree that it should not be surprising that most college-bound CA students look first to UCs and CSUs, with only small segments finding out-of-state public schools attractive relative to UCs and CSUs.
Basically, we can see the following groups of CA students:
A. Low-and-middle-income-parents students will get good FA from UCs and local CSUs. These students, who are probably the great majority of college bound students in CA, will have UCs and local CSUs as their baseline. The small number of them with the highest stats can find merit at out-of-state public schools.
B. High-income-parents-who-will-pay-UC-or-CSU-costs students will likewise have UCs and CSUs as their baseline. The small number of them with the highest stats can find merit at out-of-state public schools. The small number of them with the highest income parents can attend out-of-state public schools at list price.
C. High-income-parents-who-will-not-pay-UC-or-CSU-costs students will look to cost-reduced ways, such as commuting to a local CSU, or starting at a community college and then transferring to a local CSU. The small number of them with the highest stats can find merit at out-of-state public schools. The latter may be particularly motivated to seek out attend such schools, because even a less selective flagship like Alabama may seem more attractive than the local commuter-based CSU or community college.
Of course, these forums are populated heavily by high stats students and high income parents (including both those who will pay a lot and those who will not). So a sample using forum posters may be very unrepresentative of the overall situation of college-bound CA high school seniors.
The race/ethnicity situation may be another deterrent for the large number of Latino and Asian students from CA, even if they are in the parental income and stats categories that otherwise make looking out-of-state attractive. Even without considering what some people interpret as a greater likelihood of encountering hostility against their race/ethnicity, it is likely that at least some Latino and Asian students find a school with 4% Latino and 1% Asian students (e.g. Alabama) to be about as (un)attractive as some white students find a school with 6% white students (e.g. Florida A&M).