I’ll bite.
If your son is applying to schools where a portfolio will be the major factor in admissions, the the whole “reach, match, safety” thing just doesn’t apply in the same way.
As with music or dance or drama majors, the audition is the key element for admission to these programs, not the GPA or SAT score. The audition is compared to all the others who are doing auditions. There is no way to gauge the strength of the admissions pool in advance.
This is the same for studio art majors who must submit a portfolio. This portfolio and the strength of it is often THE thing which determines acceptance to these schools.
So…exactly what are his schools using to determine admission?