<p>Sorry, to be confusing Soozievt, I used likelies and matches interchangeably. Looking at the Naviance plots, converting the ACT to an SAT, if NOBODY in the general vicinity of her point gets rejected (or waitlisted), I consider it a safety. If most of the people in her vicinity get in, but not everybody, I view it as a match or a likely. If hardly anybody gets in or if it’s just totally inconclusive, I consider it a reach. Then I added some common sense (wouldn’t dare consider Northwestern as safety for example, despite Naviance indicating that it is).</p>
<p>She can’t know if the Michigan reject (actually waitlist) in her Naviance vicinity turned in the application late, or wrote a mediocre essay or had a criminal record or was simply in the socio-economic demographic that they don’t need more of. This has to leave a shadow of a doubt rendering it to the match/likely group. I asked the group because I wasn’t sure if I was being too conservative. My sense now is that I am not. </p>
<p>Looking a little further on collegeboard.com at the very important and important admissions factors comparing Wisconsin and Michigan, </p>
<p>Wisconsin:
Very Important: Class Rank, Rigor of secondary school record, academic GPA
Important: Recommendations, Standardized Test Scores, State Residency</p>
<p>Michigan:
Very Important: Rigor of secondary school record
Important: Application Essay, Recommendations, Standardized Test Scores, Academic GPA, First Generation College Student</p>
<p>For Wisconsin the essay is in the “considered” section. My read is that for students whose numbers don’t make it automatic, they read the essay, whereas for Michigan, they read and evaluate the essay as an important factor. She’ll write decent essays for Wisconsin without slaving over them for weeks like she will for the others. Now I noticed that for her other safety the essay is an important factor also, along with level of interest. It will be very nice to bag one admit rolling admissions very early.</p>