Can you be rejected based on your pre-January grade update application?

If you took your two dual enrollment courses during your senior year of HS it’s not really enough of a time-frame (nor sample size) to constitute as an “upward trend” per say. The good news is that the admissions committee will always give you the benefit of the doubt so, depending on your explanation, it’s more likely to be viewed as a bad semester where you were overwhelmed with dual enrollment along with your HS curriculum.

Again though, Economics admissions generally places more emphasis on your grades from relevant “core” courses over the “UC-GPA”. A 3.8+ GPA in those courses during your admissions review (which doesn’t include Spring semester) will significantly increase your chances regardless of your eventual overall GPA.

Assuming you received a B in Calc I…All “A’s” in the Fall will give you a theoretical maximum GPA of somewhere around a 3.66 between Calc I, Calc II, and Macro going into your admissions review. This is on the low end for all three target schools and I would consider adding another relevant course in the Fall to potentially increase your “core” GPA. Maybe an introductory stats course which should be easy given you passed the AP equivalent?