One thing that you might want to do is to look at the Common Data Set for each school to which you are considering applying. The CDS contains some information that might be worthwhile looking at as you estimate admissions chances at difference colleges and universities: Section C7 contains a list of academic and non-academic admissions factors, and how each school weighs those factors; Sections C9-C11 contain information about test scores and GPAs for recently matriculated students at each school.
One thing I would pay attention to is how each school weighs the academic and non-academic admissions factors in Section C7, because no two schools are alike. For example, UNC gives more weight to standardized test scores than to GPA; so you would probably need to have really high standardized test scores in order to be competitive at UNC-CH. Notre Dame, by contrast, weighs GPA much higher than standardized test scores; and Notre Dame gives heavy weight to some interesting choices among the non-academic admissions factors that it considers.
Also, some of the schools on your list – U of Michigan comes readily to mind – will recalculate your high school’s GPA by eliminating all plusses and minuses. So, a B+ is considered a B, and A- is considered an A, and so forth.
Also, if you think that you may want to go to a professional school or graduate school after getting your undergraduate degree, then you will need to figure out how to pay for that as well. So minimizing your COA at an undergraduate institution might take on more importance for you.