Congratulations on your excellent academic record and being a competitive applicant. I agree that since the UC’s are test blind and only UCB may ask for LOR’s, your chances are not that straight forward.
Since Political science is found in the College of Letter and Sciences at most of the UC campuses, the College does not admit by major so you are competing with all applicants within that college.
For example, UCLA’s admit rate for the College of L&S was 10% which puts it in the Reach category.
Below are how I would chance you for the UC’s and if admit data for PS was available, I have included that information.
Very Likely: UCM (90%) and UCR (90%)
Likely: UCSC (53% admitted into a proposed major of PS)
Target: UCD (38% admitted into the College of L&S)
High Target/Low Reach: UCI (28%), UCSB (27% admitted in the College of L&S), UCSD (27% extrapolated based on yield and College admits)
Reach: UCLA (10% admitted into the College of L&S) and UCB (12% admitted into the College of L&S).
Best of luck and you will have many options from which to choose.