Can’t help with chancing but if the most you can get is 3 of 4 and you have straight 2s, it doesn’t sound great. Your AP scores and SAT show you are strong.
You note architecture and MechE - two different things.
Then you mention Graphic Arts, that’s another thing.
You should decide which path to pursue before applying.
Most schools you list won’t have EA and aren’t necessarily the strongest in the field. U Michigan will be double your budget plus so you can remove unless you have in-state residence but it does not sound like you do for any state.
For example, for architecture you might sub in or add USC, Syracuse, Miami, Carnegie Mellon, even Cooper Union, which is a unique school. Not even sure if U Chicago has architecture vs a studies program and it doesn’t have MECHE. Others can comment but you picked universities by an overall rank vs strength in the major. I left off Va Tech due to cost. Like Michigan, it won’t hit.
For MechE, you might look at schools like UVA, and really other top ones will be out of reach due to cost. But there are many solid schools, depending on how your grades get computed that will hit cost - in the South - from an Alabama to Ms State to LSU to Kansas in the Midwest and more. In the U.S., the name matters little in the major. It’s the accreditation you want. A school like Purdue or Florida would be a bit over budget. CMU and USC would be two great private additions that meet need. Kids turn down reaches for safeties every day, by choice (like mine) or given a limited budget like you have.
So here’s the thing - for your list, which consists of privates and the schools I ga e you which has only UVA as public - all these schools meet demonstrated need. UVA and UNC (not for you) are the two publics that do.
You need to have your parents run the net price calculators.
That will determine if you can go for $40k or not. If not, except for a few that offer merit, you will need to alter your list or stay in HK as you note.
Here’s an NPC example. But your parents need to do for each and every school. So admission is one tough thing with your list. But then your limited budget complicates it a bit more.
Good luck.