As a domestic/green card applicant, sure, I think you have a shot. You’re still an unhooked applicant, and the competition is steep, so there’s no “slam dunk” among the Ivy+ schools… but it’s not a pipe dream either.
In the international pool, I’m less optimistic. You’re up against the best-of-the-best from countries all over the world, and you’re pooled with one of the most over-represented countries at that.
From what you’re saying, the NPC projections from the very most tippy-top competitive schools (which on the whole are also the most generous) are a stretch for your family - more expensive than your in-state public but still doable for a highly-desirable school. This means that many full-need-met schools in the next tier - slightly less competitive but also a bit less generous - may be pointless to consider, because the price point will be too high and the perceived prestige-payoff not high enough. (Although you should still run NPC’s, because results may vary. For example, Grinnell comes to mind as one example of a school that would be a very plausible admit for you, and that can be - thanks to its large endowment - surprisingly generous with both need-based aid and merit. There’s a lot of applicant-pool overlap between Grinnell and Reed, but your finances could end up looking better at Grinnell - run the numbers and see. Both are very strong at placing students in top grad programs. Grinnell also has a relatively high percentage of international students - about 19% of the student body, vs. 10% at Reed - so it could potentially be worth an app in the first cycle if you were to go with the two-phase approach I suggested.)
With regard to women’s colleges - you’re signalling your openness to these by listing Wellesley, and yet you’re not considering the women’s colleges that are in consortia with co-ed schools you’re considering. (If Pomona and Mudd, why not Scripps? If Amherst, why not Smith &/or Mt. Holoyke?) Maybe these schools aren’t generous enough $-wise, but at least run the #'s and see. Holyoke also gives some full-tuition scholarships.