I think Simmons is extremely likely, Bryn Mawr is probably a toss-up to likely, and ditto with McGill. With respect to the rest of your schools, you stand a legitimate shot at acceptance. That legitimate shot, however, is probably not tremendously different than the overall admissions rate to those schools (15% or less) due to the large number of highly qualified students who are applying. There are simply way more qualified candidates than there are spots.
Should you decide you want to expand the list of schools that you’re considering for EA or RD, below is a list of schools that are in metro areas with lots of shadowing possibilities. Most of these would be likely or extremely likely admittances for you, and most of these have a good to excellent chance of being within the budget that you mentioned your family wanted to stay under.
Best of luck to you.
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Bellarmine (Louisville, KY): 2400 undergrads
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Brandeis (Waltham, MA): 3600 undergrads
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Butler (Indianapolis, IN): 4500 undergrads
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Case Western (Cleveland, OH): 5800 undergrads
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Clark (Worcester, MA): 2300 undergrads
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College of the Holy Cross (Worcester, MA): 3k undergrads
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Duquesne (Pittsburgh, PA): 5100 undergrads
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Goucher (Baltimore, MD): 1100 undergrads, and you can cross register for classes at other Baltimore schools, like JHU
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Howard (D.C.): HBCU with 9k undergrads
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Loyola Maryland (Baltimore, MD): 3800 undergrads, and you can cross register for classes at other Baltimore schools, like JHU
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Meredith (Raleigh, NC): women’s college with 1400 undergrads
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Nazareth (Rochester, NY): 2100 undergrads
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Saint John Fisher (Rochester, NY): 2600 undergrads
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Saint Joseph’s (Philadelphia, PA): 4200 undergrads
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Suffolk (Boston, MA): 4200 undergrads
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Thomas Jefferson (Philadelphia, PA): 3800 undergrads…a fit school…but it has a big healthcare focus
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U. of Rochester (Rochester, NY): 6600 undergrads
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U. of the Sciences (Philadelphia, PA): 1400 undergrads…another fit school
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Xavier (Cincinnati, OH): 5100 undergrads