Well, that is helpful, might have been useful to state that up front. If the OP really is Brown material, I think he/she can evaluate the validity of extrapolating a conclusion for the entire Brown applicant base from the results of one school’s Naviance, or from CC results threads which are heavily biased toward the good-news results.
I’m not sure about that. Is that what you were looking for when you started a chance-me thread about your own prospects?
But let’s say you are right. What does your 50:50 speculation mean? It cannot mean that the OP will be 50% admitted, because everyone is either 100% admitted or 100% denied eventually. If it means 50% of the applicants with those SAT and GPA scores will be admitted, well, bingo, you hit it…because whether there is a denial or acceptance you can say you were right!! (Same with any prediction except 100%)
This is the Brown forum. Maybe when subsequent chance-me threads inevitably pop-up, some of us can advise the OP–and the many people who are reading but not posting–that our opinions aren’t “worth much if anything” as you said. And that responses are “pure speculation”, as you said.
Or that really important things such as essays and recommendations that we do not see here, are essential parts of an application’s strength or weakness. Or refrain from saying things such as “lack of major awards are holding you back”, when there is no reason to reach such a conclusion…errrrr I mean speculation.
Otherwise, people might fall into the trap of looking to the Brown forum as a source of reliable information instead of mere speculation