I agree with basically everything you said.And I think that most people would recognize that any “chances” thread is just slightly-educated speculation (at best), so I feel comfortable giving my opinion. I understand that an applicant’s decision is a factor of dozens if not hundreds of variables, and that a text-post on CC can only give a very limited picture of an applicant. Still, I feel as if the original poster’s achievements would put him towards the top of Brown’s applicant pool.
On the topic of major awards, here’s my reasoning for saying a lack thereof hurts: Awards help applicants stand out in ways that scores and grades can’t. In my opinion, winning a national competition is more impressive than getting a high SAT score or 4.0 GPA.
Take, for example, the AMC, AIME, and USAMO math competitions. Every year, thousands and thousands of students get perfect 800s on the SAT Math section, and on the SAT II Math II test. If Brown wanted, I’m sure it could accept a class consisting entirely of perfect math scorers. To help differentiate past the level of the SAT IIs, these math competitions can help. Every year, approximately 1000 kids applying to college have taken the American Invitational Math Examination (AIME). So, an AIME qualifier probably looks “better” than a student with a perfect math SAT II score. Even fewer kids are invited to take the USAMO, and so on. Taking the AIME or USAMO helps applicants stand out a little bit better in the overwhelmingly talented applicant pool. So do other awards and honors.