Chance a low income girl from North Carolina [4.5 GPA (3.9 unweighted), 31 ACT]

Haverford is a generous meet need college, so that a low income applicant who is admitted would have a full ride (or full ride +, depending on need). That would apply at Swarthmore, too. The difficulty is in getting in.
However, with coach support, that difficulty is erased at Haverford. So, either Haverford is seriously being considered and in that case I would apply ED if QB falls through (since applying ED is a condition set by the coach for supporting the application) or OP really likes Swarthmorre better and is willing to take a gamble to the point she’d rather not take a guaranteed full ride and risk ending up at a more costly or potentially unaffordable university in case she gets into a higher-ranked favorite.