Below are my guesses for what your chances might be at the schools on your list. I excluded McGill and Edinburgh, as I’m not familiar enough their admissions processes to make an educated guess. The chancing I did below is based on the assumption that there are no required portfolio supplementals (i.e. a video or writing sample). If there are, then this chancing should be thrown out the window.
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
Likely (60-79%)
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Bard
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Bennington
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Sarah Lawrence
Toss-Up (40-59%)
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American
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Emerson
Lower Probability (20-39%)
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Bryn Mawr
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Skidmore
Low Probability (less than 20%)
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Vassar
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Northwestern
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Brown
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Emory
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Barnard
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Swarthmore
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Bowdoin
I agree with the suggestion of adding a couple of SUNYs. I would take a good look at Purchase and Oswego.