That makes logical sense. But I think there’s a difference between kids who have really high stats (and IMO, I think Rice does consider stats more than some schools) that are competitive at almost any school vs a kid whose stats (GPA, SAT etc) may be below the avg Rice student.
Even if they’re applying ED, if you dont show a ton of demonstrated interest, the school may view the borderline stat kid as applying mainly because they think they have a better shot of getting in vs a kid who really wants to go to Rice and would be competitive everywhere.