I think that if their UC GPA is closer to 4.0 they will be competitive for UCLA. My nephew was accepted last year with a GPA close to 4.0, but otherwise pretty mediocre ECs. He attended a good high school but not one of the top in the country. He was also waitlisted at Berkeley.
I also disagree with you somewhat regarding USC. I think that the OP is competitive, but it’s a reach. Their GPA stand at the top of the mid-50%, and they have a decent EC set. To me this would indicate that their chances are close to the average acceptance rate - around 1 in 10 applicants like the OP are accepted. Unlikely, but quite possible.