Your GC will have a much better idea as to your odds than anybody on CC.
I don’t really see the thread through where you are applying, beyond either vaguely urban or big college town. I do know of a few people who got the freshman transfer offer from Cornell who used UMi for their first year. What is your goal? are you thinking med school?
Top quarter of the class from the competitive private school schools I know best, would struggle to get into Cornell, but with legacy + a genuine interest in HBHS (though I don’t see anything in your ECs that shouts HBHS) it’s plausible.