Her courses lean STEM, but no math/sci ECs are shown. That’s going to be an issue for any highly competitive college. The competition is fierce. Even if she’s not STEM, it boils down to founded a club, has a PT job, teaches dance. Are you, by any chance, omitting othet things she does, thinking they don’t matter? They can.
ps. Stats about selectivity differences don’t matter. This is about an individual candidate’s match to what a target college looks for, his or her own app package and how she presents, in toto. That’s a large part of why you see S and B rejecting the majority of top performer applications. It’s not just stats. Your shot doesn’t improve at a slightly less competitive college, if you don’t meet what they expect, holistically.
It’s tough. When top students don’t get in ED in their top choice of elite schools, their chances at other elite schools goes way down. Hang in there. She’ll need to profess her love for others schools in her apps. Hopefully, she will get into one elite school she likes. College admissions takes some luck. It is full of ups and downs and surprises. Hopefully she will get into one of her choice schools.
Your chances don’t go down, just for one school saying no, since each review is independent. Unless there’s some issue with your holistic profile/your full match and/or your presentation.
Lots of kids get rejected from one and admitted to others.
Nothing about her chances has changed. They just may not have been as high as thought because the odds are so low overall.
Decent chance at any of those schools. Although, an Ivy League is a reach for even 4.0/36/1600