50 to 75% of the applicants are on par with your daughter at many of the highly selective reaches. They are reaches for everyone when only 4 to 5% are getting in.
It is impossible to really know the chances until after the fact. You can read through strands with equally talented and driven students who did not get into any of their high reaches. You will see things that make no sense mathematically on paper - denied at Vanderbilt and Dartmouth, but accepted by Princeton. Denied out of state at UNC and UVA, but accepted at MIT. Help her find colleges where she can thrive (it is ok if that is not a T20 college) and her essays will make more sense.
Please do not let her burn out this year. Junior year matters, but she has to survive it. Those 10 APs over these two years is too much for anyone never mind the grueling ballet schedule and her other activities. Colleges do not expect that. They are looking for students to have a healthy balance, too.
Tour colleges with her and have her make a list of things that matter. Those things may evolve over the next 18 months. That is natural.
Do not feel the pressure to have her ED somewhere just because others are doing it at school. Unless she really ends up with a top choice next September/October. She will have great choices and will want to compare how she can structure her schedule. Your in state safeties are fabulous and she will be offered significant merit at other state flagships.
Remind her to enjoy high school.