This is true. My daughters hs valedictorian had a 4.0 with 4.5 or 4.6 wtd…likely 10-12 AP. Applied to 16 of top 20!! Rejected all In at NYU full pay and attends UTK with big merit.
But her ECs were not as strong. To me ballet is unique and schools want unique. She is clearly committed as she’s studied since she was 6. And she has other strong attributes.
But it is a lottery. You are absolutely correct having a few matches and safety or two is a smart strategy even for the kid who ultimately ends up at Harvard.