It’s a lottery in the sense and someone else mentioned that you have people in at Princeton but not at a lesser school like WUSTL. I know someone on merit scholarship at Vandy but rejected at Tulane. There are cases of people in at MIT but rejected at top publics.
You are correct In that yea, you need to have the best portfolio and present it right. You need to show just not how you fit but how you will add value.
But the assumption is each kid is doing that. Hence it is a lottery.
Don’t forget schools are trying to achieve a balanced class. Two equal students - one from Wyoming May snag a spot over one from NY. A person who speaks Farsi as a second language may win over one who speaks Chinese. Someone who plays oboe might get in over a Clarinet.
The assumption that one is putting their best food forward doesn’t not make it a lottery. It is positioning yourself in the best possible light. But your odds in this case are still limited. That’s all I’m saying.
There are no guarantees.