I think you’re a strong candidate - but I think you’re putting too much weight on the objective-ish ranking of USNCO and assuming admissions officers will do the same. From everything I’ve heard and read over many years, schools like Penn look at applications holistically - they expect rigor and strong grades, but don’t admit only 4.0 students, and don’t admit only students who do Olympiads (or any of the many other competitions that exist). There’s no rigid hierarchy where a science competition, being captain of the soccer team, doing research, excelling at a civics competition, and/or working 15 hours/week have set weights such that one makes you a shoo in.
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