Below are my guesses as to what your chances for admission might be at the schools on your list:
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
- Drexel
Likely (60-79%)
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UConn
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UMass – Amherst
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U. of South Carolina
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U. of Vermont
Toss-Up (40-59%)
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American (they like demonstrated interest, so be sure to show them some)
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George Washington
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Syracuse
Lower Probability (20-39%)
- Case Western
Low Probability (less than 20%)
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Cornell
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Wake Forest
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William & Mary
Some additional schools you may want to consider include:
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Seton Hall (NJ): About 6k undergrads, extremely likely admit, and a great option for people interested in international relations.
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Providence (RI): About 4k undergrads, somewhere between a likely and a toss-up. 1.3 miles from the Rhode Island State House.
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The College of New Jersey: About 7k undergrads, a likely admit, and 4.1 miles from the NJ State Senate.