I think you’re overcomplicating.
There are programs you’ll get into - and even get paid - that’s your Alabama, Arizonas mentioned.
Then there are programs that don’t have specific standards - and those you apply to. Those are the targets and reaches and even safeties that don’t have specific #s (but are safeties for other reasons).
My daughter applied to 21 and I thought she’d get into 16 and she got into 17. It’s really not that hard to predict in most cases but so many get to a point of paralysis by analysis.
PS - no more typewriters and white out!!