If your parents are anything like some friends of mine in the New York City area, they probably want you to aim for MIT or someplace with which it has a lot of overlap, like Stanford or JHU. That’s all fine and good. No one can predict what your chances are at those places. But then the question becomes whether they are willing to spend the kind of bucks it takes to pay full tuition at someplace outside the small circle of HYPMS?
Ordinarily, I would say look to your state flagship university as a financial and academic safety. But in your case, I wonder if emotionally you might be better suited for a small ivy experience. Someplace like Wesleyan University or Hamilton with proven records in undergraduate physics as well as the kind of relaxed atmosphere and individual attention you clearly desire. Depending upon where you live, you might also look into the Claremont Colleges (Pomona and Harvey Mudd, in particular.) At Wesleyan, you’d be able to opt-out of ordinary dorms as early as Sophomore Year, with enough housing points, and live in neighborhood houses owned by the university. It would be like living “on-campus in off-campus housing” with your own, hand-picked friends.