You’re clearly very good at doing school and academically couldn’t be more qualified for the schools you’re angling for (but as you probably know, all of them are long shots even for highly qualified students, and so you’ll need to have some more likely options on your list.)
Do you have a better understanding of your depression? Asking because I want so much for you to be able to thrive in college, and setting yourself up for that (with meds/exercise/supports/favorable environment) would make a big difference. You might thrive in a smaller school, for example, or a school with a more collaborative culture.
You don’t mention where you live in the US but I wonder, for example, whether you get enough light in the winter, and if you suspect that your depression is in part seasonal, that might affect which schools you emphasize in your search (e.g. Stanford, Rice, Wash U, Harvey Mudd, or Caltech might be more appealing than, say, CMU or MIT or Carleton or Reed).
What really feeds you right now? Are physics and chess just accomplishments that you are stacking up, or do you geek out about them and feel like you’re in a happy place when you’re thinking about them?
When you think about studying physics, are there research areas that interest you? Are there people whose careers inspire you?
If you’re ultimately angling for physics or engineering grad school, check out this list of schools that produce PhDs. Top Feeders to Ph.D. Programs You’ll notice that half of the top ten physics PhD schools (adjusted for size) are actually liberal arts colleges and only one is an Ivy. Several of the top 20 on this list are much easier to get into than MIT or Stanford (Reed, Rochester, Kenyon, RPI, and New Mexico Tech all accept more than 25% of their applicants.) At least two of those would almost certainly be likely admits for you. RPI and New Mexico Tech also do really well sending students to engineering PhD programs.
Honestly, you sound like you’ll have no trouble reaching for the figurative (or literal, if astro is your jam) stars, even if you don’t bag an acceptance to an Ivy or T25 school. But for it to all come together for you, you’ve gotta figure out the mental health stuff. I’ve seen a lot of really smart guys crash and burn in college because that piece was missing. And be careful of burnout. If physics olympiad doesn’t happen, you’ll still be fine. <3