I think you definitely have a chance at JMU. A toss-up is just that…it could definitely go your way. It’s not a long shot application at all and, as you mentioned, earning Eagle Scout is a great achievement.
So definitely apply and see what happens. Nobody can say for sure one way or another what will happen, but do your best on the application and take your shot. Just make sure that you have other schools on your list which would be extremely likely to accept you, to be affordable, and that you’d be happy to attend. If you’d be happy to attend Longwood and it’s affordable for your family, I think you’re highly likely to be admitted there.
Also, I sent you a direct message. Look for the green envelope in the top right hand corner of your screen.