Everything looks solid to me. I think you are likely going to be considered academically well-qualified for your reaches. It is the rest of holistic review where colleges like that cut that pool way down. There is no knowing how that will go, but it is worth a shot.
I note that RPI Medal is worth a lot of money, and you could conceivably also get a merit offer from Rochester. Those are both really good Physics departments, so I’d say those are a couple of very strong possibilities as well.