Please don’t predict. I hope you left it as unranked. Your counselor can inform, if they want.
Stony Brook physics is well respected - so it’s a great get.
Congrats.
I don’t see your ECs as fluff but you might have included fluff whic was unnecessary.
4 years varsity sports, orchestra, two years chorus - alone are fantastic. 140 hours at a hospital, etc.
They seem strong to me. and no middle school doesn’t matter.
You’ll certainly get into RPI and potentially Rochester and who knows on the rest.
But if SB is your worst case, you’ve done well.
Best of luck.