So in our feederish HS with excellent college counseling, the standard recommendation is to do 2 Likelies, 3-5 Targets, and 2-3 Reaches, for a total of around 7-10.
Anecdotally, at least, it seems a lot of higher number kids do more Reaches. Which I think sometimes makes sense, although I think more than double that amount, so more than say 5-6, is rarely a good idea for a US domestic applicant.
Similarly if a kid is chasing merit, more Likelies in terms of admission may make sense, because the merit on top of admissions may be uncertain.
OK, so currently you seem to have something like 11 Reaches, 1 Target (I am thinking this is the right category for Stony Brook), and 1 “Safety”. Obviously this is not what we would recommend.
So what would I change? First, I would really embrace the difference between a Likely and a Safety. A Safety sounds like something you would only do in an emergency, and I think that leads to people choosing Safeties they actually would not be excited to attend. A Likely is more neutral, it just means the college is likely to admit you. But you could still be very excited to attend a carefully chosen Likely, because it is such a good fit for you, would be particularly low cost, or indeed a combination of both.
Speaking of cost, as others have noted, your cost situation sounds complex. But it does seem to me like you should at least consider chasing merit. Again this requires applying to more of what are going to be Likelies for you (that is usually the point of merit, to attract students who would be above their normal numerical ranges for full pay/need-only enrollees). And there are a lot of really cool schools that also have merit, so chasing merit can be a lot of fun and rewarding in multiple ways.
OK, so at least two really carefully chosen Likelies, and more if you want to try chasing merit.
Then another 2-4 Targets besides Stony Brook. This is also in my view a very fun part of the search process, really thinking about what would be a very good college for you, that would also see you as a very good choice. It is just so personal, and again can be very rewarding.
OK, then some Reaches is fine, but 11 is in my view excessive. The obvious thing to do is think about what you most want in a college, but I believe not enough kids I encounter online are looking at it from the other side–what do these colleges most want in a student? And if you look up what they say on that subject, and reflect on it, it may become apparent some of those colleges are more likely to be looking for you than others.
So if you pick, say, 3-5 like that, where both you have very clear and specific reasons for wanting to go to that specific college, and very clear and specific reasons for thinking they would want to admit someone specifically like you, then that is truly enough to maximize your chances of actually getting admitted to at least one. Including because you will then be able to write the most honest and reflective and specific applications possible.
So that is a lot of “homework assignments”, but you have plenty of time to do it. It is usually a good idea to start from the Likely end, so put aside the Reaches for now. Start investigating which Likelies would actually be special and exciting to you. Consider merit and chasing merit. Maybe visit some if it is practical, or at least do a lot of online research–virtual tours, going through departmental and even faculty websites, reading student reviews, and so on.
I think by the time people have really done that, they start having a lot more clarity on what would count as an even better fit for them. So then you can start hunting for the Targets which also make the most sense for you.
And then similarly once you have a good handle on your Likelies and Targets, you will be in a good position to find that smaller list of Reaches that really make sense for you, and which are most likely to feel the same way in return.
And all along, if you need ideas of schools to check out, we are happy to help! It is often an evolving process too. So, say, you figure out a Likely or Target that seems promising, but either there is some critical issue with that school that makes it unsuitable, or perhaps you like that one but are struggling to identify more. We can use that sort of information to provide specific recommendations for additional colleges to check out.
And again, you still have plenty of time for such a process. Which I am confident will be well worth it in the end.