When categorizing chances for admission, I generally use these categories:
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Extremely Likely: 80-99+%
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Likely: 60-79%
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Toss-Up: 40-59%
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Lower Probability: 20-39%
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Low Probability: Less than 20%
When chancing a student, the first thing I do is look at a school’s admission rate. If the percentage is below 20%, particularly below 15%, then that school almost always remains in that category, no matter how amazing the student. (Sometimes if an admit rate is in the high teens and a person seems like a particularly good fit and particularly outstanding, then I might move it into the lower probability category.)
Additionally, if you’re looking at the admit rate for a public school, you want to take a look at its admit rate for out-of-state students, if it’s possible to find. Generally, admit rates for OOS students are much lower than for in-state students.
For categories outside of the low probability category, if a student test scores are above the 75th percentile, then I will usually bump the likelihood of a school up one category. If a student’s test scores are below the 25th percentile, then I will look at what percentage of students submitted a test score. If the majority of students submit a test, then I would move the school down a category in terms of likelihood.
When looking at GPAs, I do the same thing.
So essentially, if you’re looking for a school that is extremely likely to admit you, it will probably not have an admit rate below 60% (assuming that you were above the 75th percentile for GPA and test scores, it might boost you up one category to 80%).
If a school has less than a 20% chance of admission for people of your category (like out-of-state), then it should be considered a low probability school, even if you’re above the 75th percentile.
ETA: I realize I forgot to indicate what a school like UVA would be. In Early Action in 2023, UVA accepted 12% of the OOS applicants (source). In Regular Decision (RD) it accepted 8% of OOS applicants (source). All of this to say, UVA is a low probability school for any OOS applicant, even those that are above the 75th percentile.