So our HS uses the College Kickstart definitions:
Schools are categorized based on a combination of how your academic profile compares to college’s enrolled student distribution, and its admit rate. Both of those can be tricky to ascertain, including because you really want to use the right numbers for your type of applicant. So, like, both the academic profile and admit rate might be different for different specialty schools/direct-admit majors, it might depend on whether you are in-state or out-of-state, and so on. Sometimes you have to make educated guesses, in which case you should try to be conservative.
OK, so, UVA. Here is their Common Data Set:
In-state, their admit rate was 27.5%, OOS it was 13.2%. If you look at those Kickstart definitions, this means OOS, UVA can’t be better than a Reach, and then only if you have solid numbers for UVA. In-state, it could BARELY be a Target. We sometimes call these harder Targets, and similarly there can be softer Reaches.
So would you be in-state or OOS? Well, here are the rules:
https://vastatus.virginia.edu/virginia-domicile-requirements
Off hand based on what you described it seems likely to me you would be OOS, but you should determine that for yourself.
Taking a step back:
So this is not an uncommon attitude among some parents, but between us, such parents sometimes really need a reality check. Depending on what they mean by a “prestigious university,” they may be talking about only a small number of undergrad programs with a small number of enrollment slots available in total, with a much larger number of highly-qualified applicants hoping to get one of those slots. So necessarily, many highly-qualified applicants will not be able to go to one of those undergrad programs–there are far too few slots available.
And there is no strategy involving applying to a lot of these colleges, applying ED, or so on that can change that math. If such strategies worked like that, then all those applicants would do that and they would all get a slot–and that can’t happen because there are far too many applicants and far too few slots. So we KNOW that can’t really work.
That said, that doesn’t mean I think your parents should automatically take out a lot of loans for college. Indeed, I don’t really think they should do that for even those “prestigious” colleges, although that is a whole other conversation.
But what they, and of course you, should understand is that even if your really good numbers don’t get you into one of those handful of undergrad programs, there are still many, many different ways they can be used to your advantage besides that.
Again, broadly speaking, one thing you can do with such numbers is just be very picky about the type of college experience, academically and non-academically, you want. Just focusing on academics by way of example, it turns out the “prestigious” undergrad programs (if by that you mean ones with high generic rankings in the US News, or the ones peers and family members are likely to have heard of, or something similarly generic) do not at all have a monopoly on the top undergrad programs in any given academic field. Depending on what you are talking about, there may be excellent undergrad programs at a variety of public research universities, private research universities, and undergrad-focused institutions, aka LACs.
For this purpose, I sometimes like looking at PhD feeder studies. This is not definitive, and in particular you should not think if a college is not on these lists it can’t have a good program. But you mentioned Math, so let’s look at Math:
These have both totals lists and per capita list. On the totals list, it starts with some of the usual suspects, but right at #10 you have Minnesota. Minnesota in general is a very desirable university in many ways–Math is far from its only very strong department, it has a nice location in a very fun and friendly city, it is a Big 10 sports school, it has transparent merit for OOS kids . . . lots of good stuff. But it is also in Minnesota, so it is not flooded by applications, which means it can be a Target or Likely for higher number kids. So that right there is a great use of higher numbers.
OK, then per capita is on the right, and immediately you start seeing some smaller colleges doing really well. And some of those are Reaches too, but then once again I would single out the #10 school, St Olaf. St Olaf is a forum favorite LAC because it again has so many strong departments, it has a very nice culture, it has merit, but it is not flooded with applications . . . and guess where it is? Yep, Minnesota. Again, another potentially great use of high numbers.
OK, so as all this is illustrating, not only can you use high numbers to pick out academically strong colleges like Minnesota and St Olaf, you can also use them to get merit at colleges like that. Which can really help in terms of limiting how much your family has to take out in terms of loans and such. And all possible because of your numbers.
By the way, Stony Brook is at #15 on the totals list for Math. And if you didn’t already have it on your list, it would be a great one to add! Even if you aren’t in-state, and definitely if you are.
OK, so hopefully you can work your parents around to this way of thinking. If you want to take your shot at a few of those colleges the US News really likes and that get flooded with highly qualified applications, fine, but understand why many such applicants will not get into any such colleges no matter what they do. But then think about other great ways to use your numbers to your advantage, including being able to pick the absolute best college experiences for you, chase merit as desired, and so on.