The OP has great stats and a desire to pursue Ivy or super elite schools. She has parental encouragement and seems to possibly have the financial capacity to attend. Her stats are competitive for these schools but as we all no the odds are low for everyone.
She starts her post by displaying vulnerability and a lack of confidence that is understandable by saying;
“i can take it as i don’t have high hopes”
Given the ease of application via common app what would be the harm in her adding a U Penn (perhaps Dartmouth) to her list if her ED option doesn’t work out. You are diminishing the confidence of this student unnecessarily. She is an excellent candidate who should apply to several reaches of her application process takes her to an RD round.
So yes we agree to disagree. When advising a qualified, self deprecating 17 year old I am inclined to try and instill self confidence and realism by encouraging them to reach high so they never have to wonder what could have been while finding schools that fit and embracing some safeties.
I think that works better then advice such as…“basically, if you don’t get into Brown, I don’t see you getting into any other Ivies”, which are both factually incorrect and harmful to the mind set of the OP.
Having her agree with you is only a “victory” if it results in the best outcome for the OP. I sincerely hope she never (particularly given her parents stated bias towards prestige) finds herself questioning having not as she put it “shooting her shot”.