I agree with the gist of your post.
Circuitrider might have been making the point that there is significant overlap in students’ applications, so at some level (we don’t really know to what degree) holistic college admissions are dependent, rather than independent, events. This concept has come up on various CC threads over the years.
I am not saying that if one isn’t accepted to X top tier school that they won’t be accepted to others, but it could be true that a non-acceptance reflects some weakness in stats, curriculum, essays, LoRs (components that are generally the same from app to app) and that weakness will be similarly perceived at other schools. I have no idea where on the continuum between dependent vs independent events the average lies.
Of course it only takes one school to decide the applicant fits some institutional need. So, OP should research exactly what each school on their list is looking for.