When I put percentages by the categories, those are not an exact science; it’s just to give a frame of reference as to what I mean by those terms. I am not an admissions officer. Neither I, nor probably anybody else, can tell you that you have a 43% chance of being accepted here or a 38% chance of being accepted there.
Your 1520 SAT score is going to put you in the competition for an admit to any of your schools. A 1550 would not make a difference. It’s more of a minimum bar that needs to be reached, and you have reached it. The school will look at your entire application (and your essays) and ALSO look at its institutional priorities. Does it need more males? Does it already have enough people from Georgia? Does it need more people for its debate team, or have they already picked enough people to fill the number of slots they needed? Those answers could end up being answered in your favor, or maybe not in your favor. It will have nothing to do with the strength of your application. Obviously, your essays will be important. If you phone it in, they will likely be able to tell and that will hurt you. But if you turn in good essays, then it’s just a matter of having put yourself into contention.
Northwestern’s ED acceptance rate was 24% and Emory’s was 26% (source), at least based on the 2021-2022 Common Data Sets…but there’s a good chance those percentages have gone down in the most recent cycles. Most students only apply to these caliber schools if they think they have a legitimate shot of acceptance. I think you do have a legitimate shot of acceptance. But beyond that, it’s just a guessing game, in my opinion.