Since you’ve requested a chance me, this is how I would classify the schools on your list.
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
Likely (60-79%)
Toss-Up (40-59%)
Lower Probability (20-39%)
Low Probability (less than 20%)
Your entire list
As others have indicated, there’s probably greater than a 95% chance that if you do not change your list, you will end up at a community college next year. A guarantee? No. But the odds are overwhelmingly against you.
A couple of questions for you:
- Why do you want to go to college? What do you hope to get out of it?
- What happens if you go to community college and then you are unable to transfer to a “competitive” school?
With respect to the first question, there are many reasons why people choose colleges. Some people are focused on just learning information. Others are more interested in being around peers with similar interested. Others are trying to build professional networks for their career. Depending on what your goals are, it may be much harder to achieve as a transfer student than as a student who attends a school for four years.
@NiceUnparticularMan already asked #2, but it bears repeating. How would you feel if you apply as a transfer to a list that looks an awful lot like your current one, and you don’t get an acceptance?
Related to that, instead of thinking a few years down the road after a couple of years at a CC, think about a few months down the road to the spring. How would you feel if come the spring you have 16 rejections/waitlists and 1 acceptance to community college? Many students underestimate the psychological impact of getting rejection, after rejection, after rejection. It can really be very damaging on a student. For some people, getting tons of rejections only fuels them to prove how awesome they are wherever they land. I find that most people tend to do better with more acceptances than rejections. Reflect on what kind of a person you are to help determine what kind of balance your college list should have.
Additionally, if you’re attending a “slightly competitive” high school, how will you feel in the spring if students are talking about getting ready to move away for college and you’re planning on staying at home. Do you think that will have any impact on you?
You haven’t commented about your budget. Georgia Tech ($46k) and U. of Washington ($60k) don’t offer need-based aid beyond what the federal government offers (Pell grants and loans), and I would not expect you to be a candidate for merit aid at those schools. Make sure that all schools you consider are within your budget.