Congratulations on your hard work and being a competitive and very qualified applicant.
Here are the UC and some CSU admit rates and GPA information to help gauge your chances. I think you have categorized your school chances well although I would put UCSC in the Likely Category and UCSB in the Low Probability category.
Best of luck.
| Campus | CS |
|---|---|
| UC Berkeley | 1.9%/ UC Capped weighted GPA 4.20-4.30 Campus UC unweighted 3.89-4.00 Campus Weighted uncapped 4.31-4.65 |
| UC Davis | 19% Selective Major/ UC Capped weighted GPA 4.19-4.30 Campus UC unweighted 3.80-4.00 |
| UC Irvine | 16.8% Impacted Major/ UC Capped weighted GPA 4.12-4.29 Campus UC unweighted 3.83-4.00 |
| UCLA | 3.1% Impacted Major/ Capped weighted GPA 4.25-4.32 Campus UC unweighted 3.90-4.00 CS Weighted Uncapped 4.62-4.87 |
| UC Merced | 90%/ UC Capped weighted GPA 3.59-4.15 |
| UC Riverside | 32% Impacted major/ UC Capped weighted GPA 4.03-4.28 |
| UC San Diego | 12% Selective Major /UC Capped weighted GPA 4.19-4.31 |
| UC Santa Barbara | 10% Impacted Major/ UC Capped weighted GPA 4.23-4.31 |
| UC Santa Cruz | 60% Impacted Major/UC Capped weighted GPA 3.96-4.26 |
| Cal Poly SLO | 9% Impacted Major / SLO GPA for Engineering College 4.14-4.25 |
| Cal State Long Beach | 31% Impacted Major/ CSU GPA Avg. 4.07 |
| San Diego State | 28% Impacted Major/ CSU GPA Campus Avg. 4.04 |
| San Jose State | 31% Impacted Major/ A CSU of 4.3 needed to meet 2024 Impaction threshold without other factor points. |