As an example in my kids’ class there were four NMFs, one ended up at Berkeley for engineering, one was rejected for EECS at Berkeley but ended up as a Regents scholar at UCLA (both had perfect records and good ECs), one went to UCSD for CS and one to UCSB for math. Those outcomes weren’t very surprising given the uncertainty in engineering: the one at UCSD was great academically but had no ECs at all, while the one at UCSB had modest ECs and less than perfect grades (not in top 10), which meant even in math (an L&S course) that wasn’t enough.
But L&S admission was more straightforward and predictable, there were only three (all NM Commended) kids who got into both UCB and UCLA and they were all L&S kids (with perfect grades and strong ECs). This is in a school with about 10-12 students admitted per year to UCB and/or UCLA.