Based on recent applicants I know and an understanding of how top universities manage admissions data, I predict you will be waitlisted at Duke and then very possibly offered admission based on your interest at that point. The waitlist this past year allowed for additional information to be submitted to keep them updated.
Your chance of getting in is tough to nail down after a few years of wonky data. Close to 50,000 applicants for the class of 2025 and 4.3% admissions for RD.
With your stats on the lower part of their averages but also knowing some who apply are not as qualified you have less than a 10% chance in the RD cycle. But I think a solid chance of getting waitlisted and then you will have to see what your options are.