Thank you for the details. In that case, your verbal/English scores are in the Duke 25-75th range and that helps. Definitely take the SAT again if you can and study very hard for the math , with lots of practice tests! A better math score could really help and should not be too hard to get >= 750 if you are the top student in your AP calc class.
Write compelling essays that really express who YOU are.
Without the professor parent, it is a long shot, 10% if you go ED, just an estimate.
With the connection, if it helps (it may not): 20-24%. I believe Duke’s ED acceptance rate was sub-20 last year; basically I think your connection raises your odds slightly above the average ED admit rate.