If you become a finalist, check these out: College Papers ⮩Papers For Sale⮨ in the US - ■■■■■■■■■■■■■
This list shows options for semi-finalists and finalists: Selective Colleges Offering National Merit Scholarships
Two schools that would be safeties for you would be New Jersey Institute of Technology and UT - Dallas, both of which have significant merit aid available for National Merit Finalists. As others have mentioned, I think you’d have a good shot to get into any of the schools on your list (though I don’t think you have a 50% shot at MIT). That said, admissions have become extremely competitive, particularly for CS. I’d make sure there were some schools on my list with likelier admissions rates, unless I would be happy at a SUNY (and make sure to pick a SUNY or more…they’re not all the same!).