Thanks for bringing me to this thread, @DadOfJerseyGirl .
@nhorq, you are a strong candidate and you should be proud of your accomplishments.
Which SUNY do you have in mind? Among them, Stonybrook has the strongest math department because it was guided by James Simons, who was a noted professor there before he went on to become a hedge fund billionaire. He still contributes to the department.
Re MIT, about 10 years ago USAMO meant about an 80% chance of admission. It is still a major accomplishment, but its impact on admissions has lessened, so on that basis, I would say about 40%. Your essays and recommendations will be key.
I also have some schools you may want to consider.
- In terms of a still outstanding school but with easier admissions than MIT, have you considered Cornell?
- Given your math interest, think about NYU. Its Courant Institute is world famous for math, and I think that would be a good match school for you.
- CMU, along with MIT, is one of the few schools that explicitly asked about AMC scores. Given that they care, have you considered either their math or CS departments? CMU outside of CS would be a low reach, whereas CS would be a high reach.