Below are my guesses as to what your chances might be at these schools that you may want to investigate. Make sure your family runs the NPC for any schools you become interested in.
I’ve indicated whether the school is on the “need-blind” list that I linked above. As always, whenever finding information on a third-party site, verify with the university’s own materials. (ETA: Actually, since I have found so many errors, I would not recommend that website be used as a reference. I have updated the chancing for those schools.)
If a school was not listed as need-blind (and it was a private school that meets need or most need), then I dropped it one category. Others may have better insight if the schools should be dropped by more than one category. If a school was a low probability school and then being need-aware dropped it into the lower probability category, I eliminated it from my suggestions.
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
Likely (60-79%)
Loyola Chicago (IL): About 12k undergrads
U. of Denver (CO): About 6200 undergrads
Toss-Up (40-59%)
American (D.C.): About 7900 undergrads; you will need to show a lot of demonstrated interest to get in here
College of Wooster (OH): About 2k undergrads
Fordham (NY): About 10k undergrads, (ETA: not need-blind)
Gettysburg (PA ): About 2200 undergrads
Lower Probability (20-39%)
Brandeis (MA): About 3700 undergrads, (ETA: NOT need-blind)
Lafayette (PA ): About 2700 undergrads, (ETA: NOT need-blind)
Lehigh (PA ): About 5600 undergrads, (ETA: NOT need-blind, claims it’s mostly need-blind)
Trinity College (CT): About 2200 undergrads
Vassar (NY): About 2500 undergrads, need-blind
Low Probability (less than 20%)
Wesleyan (CT): About 3100 undergrads (ETA: not need-blind…kept on for posterity due to the change in the credibility of the source I used)
You may want to take a look at Emory or Middlebury to see if you prefer one or both of them to any of your other reaches, as my guess would make both of these low probability admits, but likelier than the schools with the lowest acceptance rates on your list.
I know you know more about UVA than I do but I seem to recall when my D18 applied that getting a Jefferson nomination or even getting the scholarship did guarantee admission to UVA. I understood them to be totally separate processes. If I am mistaken I apologize.
As an out of state student I think UVA is a serious reach for OP with the class rank and GPA
I believe Lafayette although they will meet 100% of need for students with household income of 150K or less they are need aware in the admissions process
You are correct. This 2017 article from Lafayette’s student newspaper discussed Lafayette’s plan to become need-blind, but in reviewing its financial aid page, there was no mention of being need-blind. And as most of us on the forum know, if a school doesn’t mention being need-blind and says they meet full need, it means that they are need-aware.
I have edited my original post with this language, and will do the same with chancing.
Actually, I just edited my posts above again. Fordham, Brandeis, Lafayette, Lehigh, and Wesleyan were all incorrectly labeled as need-blind when in reality they either state they’re need-aware or make no mention of being need-blind. Schools affected were all moved down one category of likelihood.
Every college is different but at Wesleyan University, the adcom reads every file in a need-blind fashion and in a normal year only winds up re-reading the last 10% of applicants with an eye toward how much is left in the financial aid budget. Need-blind – Roth on Wesleyan
And since about 60% of all Wesleyan applicants are also applying for aid, IMO the OP would have to be way below the median in gpa and submitted board scores for their financial need to be a factor in their admission.
Lehigh gives themselves an out but at least they answer.
For the vast majority of applicants we do not consider whether they are applying for financial aid or how much FA they might need to attend Lehigh. For a very small portion those financial considerations may become one factor among many in an admission decision. In all cases our review will remain holistic and in no cases will the ability or inability to pay become the only or primary factor.
Yes, nominated students are not guaranteed to be accepted to UVA - they are just more likely to get a positive decision than applicants at large. That being said, this student’s gpa and class rank are a little low for an out of state applicant to UVA so it is hard to say how it will go (they do come from an under represented state, though).
If the family income is less than $100,000, it is very likely that wealthy schools will give generous financial aid without needing merit. For instance, I would bet W&L would give full financial aid without the Johnson scholarship.
Also, the wealthiest schools do not include loans in their financial aid packages, and also cover incidentals like travel, books, and in W&L’s case, Greek dues.
One parameter I would strongly urge the OP to consider is endowment per student. Those schools with high endowments per student are going to be the most generous with financial aid, and while not being need blind, will be where needing aid will have less of an impact.
And those schools will be well resourced and well connected, so outcomes are good, wherever they are in the country (eg Grinnell).
I haven’t read the full thread so apologies for any repetition…
I agree with @cinnamon1212 that highly endowed schools will most likely meet budget on a need basis alone. They will also provide support for optional expenses in an effort to give all students an inclusive experience (winter wear, extra activities, Greek life, etc.)
I’ll put in a plug for a look at W&L. The W&L Promise guarantees a minimum of full tuition for incomes under $150k. So a family income under $100k would be close to a full ride (and include the extras cinnamon mentioned).
W&L is particularly strong in the OP’s areas of interest, with well established programs and connections to DC and a hugely supportive alumni network.
A program that may be of interest to OP is the Shepherd Consortium on Poverty Studies. I’m linking to the partner page as other schools the OP may be considering may be affiliated and it may help with developing their list. SHECP provides unique opportunities for students with an interest in underserved and vulnerable populations, including funded internships.
Best of luck with your applications. And deepest sympathies on the loss of your dad. Your many accomplishments show how strong you are and I’m sure you make your family proud.
OP, the time and energy spent calculating the endowment per student of every college you want to apply to might be better spent just plugging your family’s stats into the college’s NPC. The object is to expand your list, not restrict it to the same 10 or 12 richest colleges in the country.
But it doesn’t even provide the information you’re ostensibly looking for. Take the three colleges in the OP’s subject line: Stanford, Yale and Amherst, sure to appear on any such list. We have no idea how much of their endowments are leveraged by huge commitments to medical schools, restricted by donors or, in the case of Amherst - burdened by hundreds of millions of dollars in debt. People need to stop trying to be armchair financial analysts and concentrate on programs and curriculum and by all means - affordability.
My two cents is the challenge is while an NPC will tell you what a college will offer you if it admits you, it doesn’t really tell you how being a high need applicant will affect your chances of admission if it is not a need blind college (and there are some allegations about the real practical limits of need blindness currently being litigated).
And having some idea of the actual size of their need aid budget and how it gets allocated (more to fewer people? less to more people?) might be helpful, in the same sense it can be helpful to look at the size and allocation of their merit budget.
That said, I think endowment per capita lists and such are probably most useful just for generating possible leads you might not otherwise have thought to investigate. I would next suggest turning to Section H of their CDS to get an idea of their actual budgets for need aid (or merit), and a bit of information about how it is allocated.
And that is still pretty far from the data you would really want, but US colleges tend not to provide much more insight into their actual policies.
As my grandmother said “there’s more than one way to skin a cat”. My DH was the CFO of an educational institution for decades and this is the approach we took. There are other ways at arriving at affordability, this is a quick and dirty way to start the process.
ETA as is so often the case, @NiceUnparticularMan explained the rationale far more articulately than I.
I would spend more time on NPCs and not of the most competitive schools as they are highly unlikely. But the Oxus, Miami, Denison, Franklin & Marshall etc.
The NPC will show your expectation.
If it says $40k and you only have $15k, saying but you have the 4th biggest endowment per student is not going to win an appeal.