Chance Me: First-Generation student, Northwestern ED

Northwestern’s net price calculator checked out for me-- the others I’m not so sure about. I’m in PA so PSU and Pitt are my two financial safeties because of in-state tuition. Other than that, I’m hoping for potential merit or need-based scholarships but worst-case scenario I go somewhere in state. Do you think I could have success with Northwestern since I’m doing ED (the rate is about 25%) or does that typically not matter for non recruits/non legacies?