Your reaches are reaches for everyone, and your targets, despite being an excellent student, are also really mostly reaches as well for your major, so it’s hard for someone to give you odds - the UC’s are hard to predict.
My advice to you would be to make sure that your PIQ’s are really good, as they will differentiate you from all the other top students. Focus on your passion, your leadership and your commitment. It’s a tall order for someone who’s 17/18 to convey, but be as authentic as possible. There are a ton of free PIQ resources online - good luck!!