I mentioned this somewhere else today, but Brown is ridiculous this year. There’s something in the water in Providence. It’s also the Ivy that the typical “elite” student would not get into because they’re notably more holistic in their admissions. Truthfully (obviously I don’t know you) but from what you wrote, you don’t scream “Brown” to me, even though it’s ridiculously impressive what you have in this list.
For the rest, I’d say you could lump these:
Columbia, Stanford, Penn, Rice: If you’re on this site, I know you know that these schools are insane. You could be the perfect candidate and these two would still not be givens. I know comparatively UPenn is not with the first two, but in terms of the quality of applicants, you’re up against hard ■■■■. I’d say you’re anywhere in the 20-30% range for Penn, and probably 10-15% for Columbia and Stanford. I honestly don’t know much about Rice, but if I had to guess I’d say that’s probably somewhere between Columbia and Stanford vs. Penn.
Berkeley, USC: I’d say 20-30% as well here. Competitive state schools can typically be lumped together.
Washington (assuming you mean State and not St. Louis?): you have a good shot here as it’s not crazy competitive and you’re already in-state. I wouldn’t worry about this one as long as they don’t think you’re applying just as a pure safety. If you mentioned in your application that you felt like the school could give you something and vice versa, there should not be any problem for you for Washington.
I think that spike in grades might hurt you, honestly, because it might be obvious that you weren’t focused on school. Rising grades helping admissions chances can usually be attributed to students growing their study skills and wanting to challenge themselves.
Again, your list is very impressive. You have a very classic “pre-professional” résumé; obviously very skilled in a number of things. I’m sure you didn’t mention EVERYTHING on here, but it would also help your applications to include smaller clubs and achievements, anything you’re in, that’re more fun or passion based, if that makes sense? Again, schools want the quirks and range in your personality. It definitely helps that you’re also a white male going into humanities. Schools are getting a huge influx of STEM applicants and that could hurt your chances if you applied to, say, engineering.
Good luck with everything! I’d be interested to hear about your results!