UC’s are test blind and only UCB will ask for LOR’s if you are selected. I am assuming that your SAT score is listed for possible OOS/Private schools which require the test or are test optional.
Here are the UC 2021 admit rates but not major specific. Data Science will be more competitive than Statistics and not all UC campuses will consider an Alternate major.
| Campus | 4.20+ | 3.80-4.19 | 3.40-3.79 | 3.00-3.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkeley | 30% | 11% | 2% | 1% |
| Davis | 85% | 55% | 23% | 10% |
| Irvine | 60% | 31% | 14% | 1% |
| Los Angeles | 29% | 6% | 1% | 0% |
| Merced | 97% | 98% | 96% | 89% |
| Riverside | 97% | 92% | 62% | 23% |
| San Diego | 72% | 25% | 2% | 0% |
| Santa Barbara | 73% | 28% | 4% | 1% |
| Santa Cruz | 91% | 81% | 46% | 9% |
I think you categorized your school chances pretty well. UC Davis is between a Match and Reach school while UCLA/UCB would be High Reaches.
For OOS, University of Arizona or Arizona State might be options. ASU has a online merit calculator you can use to see if costs will be in budget: https://scholarships.asu.edu/estimator
You can also look at the WUE schools: Save On College Tuition | Western Undergraduate Exchange (WUE)
For in-state privates, Chapman University, University of San Diego and Occidental college. You would need to run the NPC’s to see if they meet your budget.
I would add Cal Poly SLO since Stats has around a 40+% acceptance rate so a slight Reach but possible. You will need to calculate your SLO GPA (UC GPA capped plus 9th grades).
Best of luck.