Admissions is an unusual game. In my son’s class, they ranked the top 25. I only heard of one Ivy (P) and she wasn’t top 25. It doesn’t mean more didn’t get in but when they said where they were going at the breakfast, none came up.
My daughter’s val had a 4.0, 11 or 12 APs (no clue the scores), a 36 ACT, solid activities, and was 0 for the top 20. Got into NYU full pay and attended UTK.
Admissions at the top ones is hard to predict but when you need a 3rd party to “validate” or “justify” a drop off, it seems a huge strike and yes, when you want to major in something that requires stats and you got a C, that’s another strike.
But none of us are adcoms. OP has safeties - so they have a strategy in mind. After that, they can apply anywhere but should ensure they are mentally “tough” to handle all the likely forthcoming rejection.