I still have no clue what you mean by dem. Do you mean Democratic, as in Liberal? Please don’t use that term, if that’s what you mean. There are definitely conservatives too at all those schools. I would certainly say that U Penn, Michigan and Cornell will have plenty of conservatives.
Essays are one small part of the whole package, and I am wondering what makes you think they are 9/10. Students are pretty notorious for misjudging their essays.
They will want to see a name of this national convention you organized. If it’s raising red flags with us, don’t be surprised if it does with AO’s. They can and do check things if they feel it’s warranted.
I think your chances are about average for those schools, but I am sensing a lack of awareness and humility in what you say. You need great teacher recommendations.
Merit scholarships are like gold dust at some of those schools, and non-existent at others, such as the ivy schools. Do not count on one.