<p>I just want to point out that I am not a big fan of chance threads of top 10 schools. I know that it is such a cliche statement here in the virtual premises of this website but to be honest: when a school has less than 15% acceptance rate and has great reputation (pretty much all of the top 15 schools), it is impossible to give someone anything other than a reach unless you have major awards (international-national, significantly impressive, etc) or are worthy of being recruited for something in particular (sports, well-published scientist, etc). </p>
<p>That being said, you have a chance. No one is denying that. Anyone with your type of “profile” has chances at all the schools. All people are trying to say is that it really depends on the class of 2018 applicants as a whole and the applicants from your school. </p>
<p>FYI, Duke does not prefer in-state applicants. If you look at almost any amazing private school in the country, one of the top 5 states represented will almost always be the home state. In this case it is North Carolina. Because Duke has such a “stamp” on the state itself and how everyone in the state knows about it, there are obviously a very high number of applicants and thus automatically the higher total number of acceptances. Yield Rate for in-state applicants is almost certainly alot higher than out of state because one of the factors used by applicants is location and because Duke would be the closest top school almost always, there is naturally a higher yield rate which translates to a higher number of admits/enrollees. </p>
<p>Also, in any particular period of time the most represented state at Duke wavers between California and North Carolina. <a href=“http://admissions.duke.edu/images/uploads/process/DukeClass2017Profile.pdf”>http://admissions.duke.edu/images/uploads/process/DukeClass2017Profile.pdf</a> This link shows total enrollees for the past 4 years and California and NC are close.</p>