IME, students have a pretty good idea of where they stand in their class, with or without official rankings. By the time the Collegekids were in Grade 11 (and usually well before), we had a good idea of who the class ‘stars’ were. Your class profile, the LoR from your GC, and the applications from your classmates will give the super-selectives a pretty good idea as to whether or not you are one of the ‘stars’. Time to be honest with yourself: are you one of them or not?
In another post you say that you go to “one of the most competitive schools in the country”, and above you note that your school sends ‘a decent amount of kids to ivies and similar schools’, so clearly the college counselors at your school know what they are doing. From here, your GC’s response to your ‘what are my chances’ question seems rather tepid; at the HSs the Collegekids attended that sort of response would ring an alarm bell.
You asked for chances: I would re-consider both your ED choices, and use your ED card where you have a more plausible case.
ps: in highly competitive HSs, college admissions can be a blood sport. You may have told so many people for so long that your dream is Yale that you night feel that to change that would be embarrassing or in some way a failure (it’s not). Though you probably won’t believe me until December of 2023, the importance of the name of the college you end up attending will drop by 60% in June of 2023, 75% by September, and (if you land happily) 98% by Thanksgiving. You can help yourself (and make senior year infinitely happier) by withdrawing from the game as much as possible. For example, you can say to all and sundry: ''guess what- all this time I thought that Yale was the absolute dream- but I just found out about [name of other program with something that fits you in particular]". Try doing that every week- always with a different place.